Memo to O: Give Hillary and Supporters Some Time

It is very likely that tonight Sen. Barack Obama will capture the majority of elected and pledged delegates to the Democratic national convention. However, he’ll still be considerably short of hitting the magic number of 2,025, which is needed to nominate. This is a very critical juncture for the Obama campaign. More important than the Reverend Wright issue, more important than his “bittergate” comments, more important than the wildly swinging poll numbers, and more important than the 75,000 cheering fans that showed up to his rally in Oregon two days ago. Now is the time for Barack Obama and his campaign to give Hillary Clinton and the millions of people across America who supported her vigorously the time they need and the space they need to get to know him better in a more positive light. This is needed so Democrats can come together for an historic victory over John McCain and the failed policies of the past eight years.

 

I’ve worked on winning campaigns and losing campaigns. When you win, there is no greater political joy. You’ve vanquished and opponent. You won on your own terms, and there is an enormous desire to gloat and congratulate yourself and your supporters on a campaign well fought. All the mistakes you made seem irrelevant. All the speeches you gave and the commercials you produced—indeed every aspect of the victorious campaign—has been vindicated. And in America, we love winners.

 

When you lose, there is no greater political anguish. It’s almost as if there has been a death in the family. Everything you’ve worked for during the grueling months and years is dissected and second guessed. The speeches you gave, the commercials produced, everything about the campaign is looked at with suspicion. Fingers are pointed and blame is assigned. Many political candidates never get over over a loss, which can be viewed as a rejection from the American people. It takes months if not years to get over it. In a primary with so much at stake, however, there is not enough time.

 

Today in The Washington Post, Dan Balz analyzes what is going on and the tentative truce that exists between the Clinton and Obama campaigns as the primary election season draws to a close in the next two weeks. It’s critically important now that the Obama campaign begin the process of reaching out to Sen. Clinton and her supporters. They have to resist the natural urge to celebrate their hard fought victory, and tonight in Iowa is a good place to start. It’s tough for both campaigns right now, but the millions of Clinton voters who spent countless hours campaigning hard and viewing Obama as the enemy need and deserve time to grieve the narrow loss, pick themselves up and realize what is at stake in November. Only Barack Obama can make that process easier.

 

 

 

Mr. Edwards Jumps In

The results in the West Virginia showed a problem for Barack Obama as he moves into general election mode against John McCain. However, yesterday’s endorsement by former North Carolina Senator John Edwards is step number one at fixing that problem. 

John Edwards is a walking, talking, living, breathing example of who Barack Obama will need to attract to his campaign, if he is to beat McCain. Edwards has a long record of giving a voice to the voiceless and has been a champion for working class families, whether those families are white, black or brown. It will, though, be among white voters where he can be the most helpful.

Since he first ran for President in 2004, John Edwards has talked about the two Americas—one made up of the wealthy, educated and powerful, and the other made up of hard working, under educated and struggling under the strains of the Bush economy. Barack Obama will need the full force of John Edwards and the entire Democratic community to bring along those who were splintered during the long and closely fought battle for the nomination.

It’s clear that Obama understands this weakness and is moving to correct it now. Visiting Cape Girardeau, a bastion of working class white voters, he started building the bridge. The tour then took him to Grand Rapids Michigan, another place under considerable economic strain because of the presidency of George W. Bush. In Michigan, he was joined by Edwards, a master bridge builder, to continue the process. Obama is making all the right moves as the end of the primary fight is at hand. It’s also time now for all Democrats to pick up a hammer and join him.   

The Real Race Today? Mississippi

Voters in West Virginia and Kentucky are heading to the polls right now to choose between Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee. While the national media is focused on this race, I think it’s a bore. We know the outcome already: Hillary Clinton will win both states by double digits, and it will have virtually NO impact on the race for the Democratic nomination. Even Clinton advisors privately and publically admit that barring a catastrophe for Barack Obama he will be the nominee. No one really expects the candidate who has survived the Rev. Wright and “Bittergate” scandal to suddenly implode. Indeed, in just the last 24 hours he’s picked up as many superdelegate commitments as Hillary can win today in either primary. And the day is still young.

While these two states’ primary voters are important and the results will be interesting, there is race much further to the south which has far greater importance in realizing the huge mountain that presumptive Republican nominee John McCain will have to climb in November.

When Trent Lott left to join the phalanx of lobbyists in DC, his Senate seat was given to Congressman Roger Wicker. It was widely assumed at the time that Wicker’s Congressional seat was safe for Republicans to hold. Then, along came Travis Childers and upset the formula. Now, today, Childers is poised to become the third Democrat to win in an overwhelmingly Republican congressional district.

The avalanche began with former House Speaker Dennis Hastert’s district. Hastert’s seat is in the solid Republican suburbs of Chicago (I grew up in this district). A Republican has represented this district for generations and now a Democrat sits in that seat. Then, just last week in my adopted home state of Louisiana, a seat that had been in Republican hands for more than 30 years elected Democrat Don Cazayoux. If Childers wins today in Mississippi, it will mean that the supposed Republican lock in safe House districts is coming to an end. For John McCain, this presents a problem. Not only must he run for president, saddled with the most unpopular incumbent president in history in George Bush, he also has to repair the enormous tatters to the conservative coalition that Ronald Reagan built nearly 30 years ago.

We haven’t heard from John McCain in awhile. I guess we may now know why; he doesn’t have much he can say.

Race Baiting Language is NOT the Clinton Legacy

As a young reporter covering politics in Louisiana, Arkansas and Texas, I stood in awe as I watched a young, vibrant and charismatic politician stand in the heart of Old Dixie and talk passionately about race relations in America and the importance of getting beyond the old racial divides which split our nation and made it weaker and not stronger. The crowd both white and black watched, many with tears in their eyes as this gifted leader tried to sway some voters who may not have all together agreed with his assessments of race and undoubtedly won over converts. I knew even then that this unique leader would one day be President of the United States. Several years later, I stood on the west front of the Capitol covering the inauguration of that young leader, President Bill Clinton, and I recalled that moment, especially as poet Maya Angelo delivered her beautiful poem “Good Morning”. THAT is what I want to remember of the Clinton era in American politics.   

However, as Hillary Clinton’s campaign for president continues on what is now merely quixotic, I see a Bill and Hillary Clinton that I do not recognize. I can even forgive Bill Clinton’s comments in South Carolina dismissing Barack Obama’s historic run as “Jesse Jackson even won in South Carolina”, because it was a heat of the moment, unscripted and BAD mistake. It did not undo all of the great things President Clinton and Sen. Clinton did for America and for race relations. Now, it appears that that kind of thinking has become a disturbing pattern. Yesterday, Hillary Clinton said: “Senator Obama’s support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again.” She added: “There’s a pattern emerging here.” I agree it’s a pattern and if it does not stop it could destroy the warm memories that I and millions of Americans have for Bill and Hillary Clinton. The New York Times editorial this morning is perfectly on point.

Sen. Clinton has the right and determination to continue, and I hope she does. If she were to drop out now it would deprive thousands who’ve waited a lifetime to vote for a woman contender. But the race baiting and negative attacks have got to stop, for the good of the country, for the good of the party and most importantly to them, to preserve the Clinton’s amazing legacy.

 

OK… So I was Half Right!

On the upside, I DID predict a split. On the downside (for my prognosticating abilities), I was wrong about Wednesday being Groundhog Day with another six weeks of campaigning.  

The clock is ticking and it may be a matter of days before Sen. Clinton recognizes the obvious and begins a move to the exits. This morning two realizations came to light that will continue to haunt her campaign. The first, of course, is money. We now know that she’s loaned her campaign an additional $6 million. If you’re out of money, your done as a candidate. It’s just that simple. The second is that former Sen. George McGovern—a longtime Clinton backer, ally and superdelegate—switched to Barack Obama, and he has called on Sen. Clinton to drop out of the race. Both Bill and Hillary Clinton cut their political teeth in 1972 working on the McGovern campaign for president and McGovern has long backed their efforts. He was one of Sen. Clinton’s first declared superdelegates. If this trend continues, it could spell the end sooner rather than later. 

Let’s discuss the Clinton Legacy for a moment. I for one am not concerned whether she drops out now or in early June—especially after thousands of Clinton supporters, many of whom are women and men who have waited their entire lives to vote for a serious woman contender for president, have cast their ballots. But I do hope she realizes the obvious and will back off of the “bare-knuckled, no holds barred” campaigning we have seen in the last several states. It’s important that Democrats remember the amazing Clinton legacy and the impact that Hillary and Bill Clinton have had on the Democratic Party and American history: the first Democrat reelected in generations; a president who oversaw the largest expansion of the American economy in the history of our Republic; the first First Lady to leave the White House for a seat in the United States Senate. The list goes on and on.

Now, however, is the time for Democrats to begin to come together and to recognize the importance of the Clintons’ place in American history—as well as the opportunity Barack Obama has to be the kind of transformational candidate and president this country sorely needs.   

My North Carolina and Indiana Predictions

Will voters in North Carolina and Indiana bring some finality to the Democratic race for President? Don’t count on it. All indicators look to a split decision (www.realclearpolitics.com). The poll of polls shows a 7-point lead for Obama in NC and a 5-point lead for Clinton in Indiana. Unless Barack Obama can pull a rabbit out of his hat and close the gap in the Hoosier state, it’s likely we’ll have another Groundhog Day—signaling another month of endless campaigning. However with only a handful of smaller states with fewer delegates left, the handwriting may be on the wall. Which brings us back to the superdelegates.  

The one thing Wednesday will bring is the opening of the spigot for superdelegates. Many if not all have been waiting patiently until the majority of Democratic voters in the nation have had their say. By Wednesday, that will have happened and I predict they will begin stepping forward and start endorsing Obama, even as the mainstream media paint a picture of an African American who is having difficulty closing the deal with white voters. Guess what? As soon as he’s the nominee, he can focus on that challenge and Maureen Dowd has some suggestions. Until then he must first focus on his task at hand.

 

So my call for tomorrow is not tricky: NC for Obama and IN for Clinton by a whisker. Then it’s Groundhog Day.  

Can You Cazayoux? Big Win for Democrats in Louisiana

Unless you’ve spent time in Louisiana, it is likely you cannot pronounce his name. It doesn’t matter. Soon, all you’ll have to do is call him Congressman!  

Don Cazayoux has really accomplished the unthinkable in winning the 6^th District of Louisiana’s House seat, a seat which had been in Republican hands for 33 years. This is rock-ribbed conservative territory kids and could portend long-term consequences for the GOP, not only in the south and Louisiana, but across the country. 

The Baton Rouge newspaper The Advocate has an analysis that should concern all the gray haired operatives over at the Republican National Committee. After losing the seat in Illinois that was once owned by the longest GOP House Speaker in history, Democrats sent a signal that they have the ability to win in conservative districts. The Louisiana contest shows that when the candidate (Cazayoux) is tied to Barack Obama (the first African American front runner) in TV commercials, it has no negative effect in the Deep South. This shows that even in the traditional Deep South, the fear of a President Obama is not so over the top that it cripples ballot nominees when they are free to run their own kind of race.

Don Cazayoux is not a “Moveon.org” type of candidate, but he’s a Democrat nonetheless. I know Don, and he’ll make a tremendous Congressman. Check out his website and help if you can. The GOP will surely be targeting him again in the fall.  

Can Obama Make Wright, Right?

The Rev. Jeremiah Wright has now forced himself back into the news by his self proclaimed redemption media tour. From PBS to an appearance in the lion’s den of the national media at the National Press Club in Washington yesterday, he has not only hurt his favorite candidate for president, Barack Obama, but has cast the African American religious experience in a light that is unfair and, in my limited experience, not accurate.  

As a campaign operative working in the south it’s been my pleasure to sit through dozens of sermons from some of the most charismatic and warm African American pastors, preachers, teachers and civic leaders. To be sure, the civil rights movement was born in the belly of the pulpit on Sunday mornings, and religion and politics have been intertwined throughout. But in my experience, the messages of love, tolerance and understanding have always been the staple of sermons that I’ve listened to in churches throughout the south. These churches were in some of the most poverty stricken and forgotten communities one could imagine, and there were always impassioned calls for civil action from the pastors, but they were positive, uplifting and hopeful. The African American religious experience is indeed different, but it is not what the Rev. Wright says it is universally.  

I recommend several pieces written today by some of the most noted African American political observers in the nation. The first is by Bob Herbert of The New York Times. The next is by Eugene Robinson of The Washington Post.

Both writers put the issue into a personal perspective that I hope the Obama campaign uses to its fullest extent. Perhaps Rev. Wright is even doing Barack Obama a favor by making it easier for him to dismiss his comments entirely and move on with his campaign unfettered by the ramblings of a proud and intelligent man who has gone too far. No one, however, should forget the good that the Rev. Wright has done for his forgotten community or the service to his country as a Marine. Those accomplishments are forever a part of his legacy, as are his words and proclamations now.

It may yet be to soon for another Obama speech on race, religion and Wright, but the time will come. It’s a teachable moment in American politics. Let’s not forget the lessons of King and the other leaders of the civil rights movement who used love, tolerance, understanding with the proper amount of righteous anger to change our nation four decades ago.   

Hate to say it, but….

I told ya so.

 

Hillary Clinton kept her campaign momentum yesterday with a 10-point win over Barack Obama in the Pennsylvania primary, keeping her and her supporters’ hopes alive for another few weeks. The underlying math, however, remains her greatest obstacle. After the big win she still trails Obama in pledged delegates, number of states won and—maybe more importantly—the popular vote.

 

She bested Obama by some 200,000 votes, which is impressive, but still means he holds a commanding, albeit not impossible to overcome, lead in popular votes. To convince the undeclared super-delegates to pick her, Hillary will have to convince them to go against the will of millions of primary voters in their own parties—a daunting task to be sure.

 

Now the race shifts to North Carolina, where Obama has a comfortable lead in polls, and Indiana, where the two continue to slug it out. The most hurtful thing for the Obama campaign, however, is that in order to finish the primary contests in a strong way, Obama will have to abandon his largely positive campaign and fight back hard with a tone of negativity that he and his campaign are unsuited for. This approach will put him in the unenviable position of being just another political candidate and not the guy who wants to change the tone in American politics. All the while, the presumptive republican nominee John McCain will continue to do feel-good campaigning, like his stop in Alabama, while allowing the Clinton campaign to continue to hammer away at Obama. Troubling times for Democrats.

 

I agree with DNC Chairman Howard Dean: the only way to avoid this going much longer is for super-delegates to get the hell off the fence and make their choices known loud and clear. I think it may be the only way Democrats can avoid the bitter split we are seeing today.

My Penn Prediction

Voters all across Pennsylvania are heading to the polls today in what appears to be near record numbers. In many ways it seems as if the Democratic nomination has come down to this all-important upper mid-west/east coast state that is so difficult to predict. Polls—as they have been since the beginning of this contest—are meaningless. In state after state after state, the numbers have described vastly different pictures of what was actually happening on the ground. The poll of polls, which you can find at www.realclearpolitics.com, has the race with Sen. Clinton holding a 6.1% lead. This poll of polls averages all the publically available research and has a slightly better track record than either Rasmussen or Zogby, which are the two most often quoted “independent” research outfits by the national media. Both have been wildly off the mark in almost every state.

 

I think Hillary Clinton has to capture a 12-point lead or higher if she is to have any claim to the remaining super-delegates, who need to be convinced that she and not Obama is the most electable general election candidate. The reason I say this is simple: the delegate math is straightforward; even if she wins by 10 points, she is likely to gain 10 or fewer delegates in the overall pledged delegate count, and Obama currently holds a 130-plus lead. Her only hope is that she is able to cut into his now huge lead in popular votes, which means she needs to best him by 300,000 voters to claim the night a success on these grounds. Politico.com has essential reading material for anyone watching the results tonight at home, please check it out: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9772.html

 

My prediction is that while polls show the gap at 6 or 7 points, Hillary Clinton will win the state by 10 points, maybe more. The flap over Senator Obama’s comments at a San Francisco fundraiser did make him sound like an elitist, making the margin closer. Unfair? Yes. But in politics, perception is reality, and I’m afraid in this case it’ll have an effect. Stay tuned!